Wind Energy Reliability Analysis based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Abstract

Reliability is defined as the probability that an item will continue to achieve its intended function without failure for a specified period of time under operation conditions. The challenges of addressing energy supply and climate change are expected to drive the growth of renewable-based electrical generation such as from wind. Consequently, worldwide growth in wind energy is expected to increase as more wind turbines are installed to meet clean electricity demand and decrease the usage of fossil fuel. However, wind has risks and uncertainties that need to be addressed, perhaps the most significant challenge wind speed variability, which emphasizes that it cannot be considered as a reliable means of meeting the electrical loads. This paper suggests a Monte Carlo summation method, which can be utilized to apply reliability analysis in order to obtain the most-likely resistance-load relationship and the system probability of failure. A case study, which is based upon collected data from actual measurements, is presented in order to study the performance of a group of wind-turbines that deliver electricity to satisfy the demand of a certain load in a suggested area.