استخدام نماذج ARIMA في التنبؤ بالتضخم الاقتصادي في الاقتصاد الليبي للفترة (2025-2016)

Abstract

Inflation has become one of the biggest problems that pose a major impediment to the economic development of the Libyan economy, and so because it causes serious damage to the economic and social structure this article aimed to build a model capable of to predict economic inflation in the economy of Libyan . and to keep track of its behavior in the future in order to reduce its height and its negative impact on the economy، for that purpose. The data was analyzed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models of ( ARIMA). The Box-Jenkins methodology was adopted، which combines the Autoregressive (AR) and the moving average(MA) methods، which is highly accurate in time series analysis. A practical has been applied to the consumer price index (CPI) as an indicator of inflation in the Libyan economy for 41 years from 1975 to 2015 and using the Statistical Package (STATA and EVIWE ). The appropriate model Was diagnosed. It shows that the ARIMA (1،1،1) model achieves a higher predictive capacity than ARIMA (1،1،0) according to predictive results accuracy tests and that there is an increasing trend of inflation in the period it was forecast